NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories


Tropical Weather

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201145
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Alberto, located inland over northeastern Mexico. 

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92):
A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles east of the 
northernmost Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower 
and thunderstorm activity.  While environmental conditions are only 
marginally conducive due to nearby dry air, further development of 
this system could lead to the development of a tropical depression 
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and 
approaches the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast 
early on Friday.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over southeastern 
Mexico and northern Central America on Friday.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development after this 
system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and a tropical 
depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this 
weekend while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Depression Alberto (AT1/AL012024)

...ALBERTO WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
 As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 20
 the center of Alberto was located near 22.3, -99.4
 with movement W at 18 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Alberto Public Advisory Number 12

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 201441
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Alberto Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
 
...ALBERTO WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 99.4W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM W OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
All Tropical Storm Warnings in Mexico have been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Alberto
was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 99.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through today, as Alberto moves
farther inland over Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Alberto is expected to continue weakening as it moves inland, and
the system is likely to dissipate over Mexico later today.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Alberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Alberto is
expected to begin to diminish across southern Texas today, with
additional rainfall totals generally 1 inch or less. Heavy rainfall
will continue to impact northeast Mexico today, with rainfall totals
of 5 to 10 inches expected.  Maximum rainfall totals around 20
inches are possible across the higher terrain of the Mexican states
of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Alberto, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
 
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge 
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For 
information specific to your area, please see products issued by 
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
 
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of northeastern
Mexico in areas of onshore winds.  Near the coast, the surge will
be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
WIND:  Gusty winds are possible in portions of southern Texas and
northern Mexico through this evening.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto will affect the coast of Texas
and northeastern Mexico through Friday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Depression Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 20 2024  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 201441
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012024
1500 UTC THU JUN 20 2024
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  99.4W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..390NE  150SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  99.4W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  98.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 22.1N 102.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N  99.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Depression Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 201442
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012024
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024
 
Alberto made landfall earlier this morning near Tampico, Mexico.
Satellite imagery depicts deep convection producing heavy rainfall
over the higher terrain in Mexico. The center of the system has
become more difficult to track, and is more ill-defined, as it
moves inland. Given the lack of tropical-storm-force wind
observations along the coast and the average decay over land, the
intensity for this advisory is set to 30 kt. Therefore, Alberto has
weakened into a tropical depression.
 
The depression will continue to move quickly westward steered by a
deep-layer ridge to the north. The system is moving farther inland
over northern Mexico, and is forecast to continue to weaken over
the higher terrain. A 12-hour forecast point is shown for
continuity, with global model fields depicting the system 
dissipating later today.
 
Alberto remains a large system and continues to produce moderate
coastal flooding across portions of southern Texas, given the
onshore wind flow. Heavy rainfall associated with Alberto will
continue to impact northeastern Mexico throughout the day today,
with considerable flash and urban flooding likely.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Alberto will begin
to diminish today across southern Texas. However, heavy rainfall
will continue to impact northeastern Mexico, and life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas of higher
terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and
Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad Victoria.
 
2. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through today's high tide, subsiding later this afternoon.
 
3. Swells generated by Alberto are affecting the coast of Texas and
northeastern Mexico through Friday. These swells are producing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 22.3N  99.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  21/0000Z 22.1N 102.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly

Tropical Depression Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 20 2024                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 201441
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012024               
1500 UTC THU JUN 20 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
LA PESCA MX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TAMPICO MX     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY

Tropical Depression Alberto Graphics

Tropical Depression Alberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Jun 2024 14:43:26 GMT

Tropical Depression Alberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Jun 2024 15:22:04 GMT

Local Statement for Corpus Christi, TX

Issued at  405 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Local Statement for Brownsville, TX

Issued at  409 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Local Statement for Houston / Galveston, TX

Issued at  414 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024