Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, located nearly 100 miles north of the northwestern
Bahamas.

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located over the central
tropical Atlantic. This disturbance is currently disorganized and
only slow development, if any, is anticipated during the next day
or two.  Conditions are then forecast to be conducive for gradual
development through the middle of the week and a tropical
depression could form while the system moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough.  Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Summary for Tropical Storm Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO TO INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...
 As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 15
 the center of Humberto was located near 28.3, -77.7
 with movement NNW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Humberto Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019  

000
WTNT34 KNHC 150855
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO TO INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 77.7 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
24 hours.  A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto should continue to move
well offshore of the east coast of Florida during the next day or so
and then move away from the U.S.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Humberto is
forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting portions of the
northwestern Bahamas.  These winds should subside later today.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, and the southeast coast of the United States from from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019  

000
WTNT24 KNHC 150853
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  77.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  77.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  77.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.0N  77.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.6N  77.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.1N  76.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.5N  75.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.3N  71.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 33.5N  64.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 38.0N  58.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N  77.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019  

000
WTNT44 KNHC 150856
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Since reconnaissance aircraft departed the storm after midnight, the
overall cloud pattern of Humberto has not changed appreciably.  Both
the earlier aircraft data and a blend of the most recent subjective
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB still support an
initial intensity of 50 kt.  While there is significant banding
evident over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation,
the cyclone has not be able to maintain convection over the center,
likely due to some mid-level dry air that has wrapped around the
southwestern and southern part of the system.  As Humberto moves
slowly northward today, it will be over warm water and generally
within low vertical wind shear.  This should allow for
strengthening, and the NHC foreast continues to calls for Humberto
to become a hurricane later today or tonight.  Additional
strengthening is likely after that time when the storm recurves and
remains within favorable environmental conditions.  Late in the
period, Humberto is forecast to interact with an approaching
mid-latitude trough, and increasing shear ahead of that system is
likely to cause weakening.  This interaction should also begin
Humberto's transition to an extratropical cyclone.  The updated NHC
intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
advisory and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model.

Humberto continues to be steered north-northwestward at about 6 kt
by a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic.  The tropical storm
should turn northward and slow down later today as a weakness
develops in the ridge.  On Monday, a broad trough over the the
northeastern United States is expected to turn Humberto
northeastward, and then east-northeastward away from the United
States.  The dynamical models remain in good agreement on the
overall track forecast scenario but there are some differences in
the forward speed of Humberto after the east-northeastward turn.
The latest NHC track is similar to, but a little slower than, the
previous advisory.  The new track forecast is closest to the
multi-model consensus to account for the forward speed differences
among the guidance.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days.  These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 28.3N  77.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 29.0N  77.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 29.6N  77.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 30.1N  76.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 30.5N  75.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 31.3N  71.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 33.5N  64.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 38.0N  58.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019  

000
FONT14 KNHC 150855
PWSAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   6(11)   X(11)   X(11)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)   X(14)   X(14)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  2   3( 5)   4( 9)   4(13)   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  2   3( 5)   4( 9)   3(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

KINGS BAY GA   34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  3   4( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

JACKSONVILLE   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

THE VILLAGES   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ORLANDO FL     34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  3   5( 8)   4(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

PATRICK AFB    34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

FT PIERCE FL   34  3   4( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

W PALM BEACH   34  3   3( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

FT LAUDERDALE  34  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  75(77)   5(82)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  48(48)   6(54)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   4(30)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  4   6(10)   4(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Humberto Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 08:57:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 09:24:48 GMT