Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

702 
ABNT20 KNHC 042307
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Cristobal, located inland over northern Guatemala and 
eastern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT...
 As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 4
 the center of Cristobal was located near 17.5, -90.8
 with movement ESE at 3 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 042040
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
 
...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 90.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Cristobal.  A tropical storm watch and a
storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area tonight
or Friday.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Cristobal was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 90.8 West.
The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6
km/h).  A turn toward the east and northeast is expected tonight, 
and a subsequent generally northward motion should occur through 
Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme 
northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday.  The 
center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico 
late Friday, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and 
approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is possible overnight.  Re-intensification 
is expected to begin late Friday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:
 
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5
to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
 
Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and
Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches.
 
Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.
 
El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
 
Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10
inches.
 
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
 
Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from
east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas
of flash flooding possible.
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 042039
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A
STORM SURGE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT
OR FRIDAY.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  90.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  90.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  90.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N  90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.1N  90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.9N  90.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.8N  90.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...210NE 180SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.6N  90.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...210NE 180SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.5N  90.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.0N  92.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 34.0N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N  90.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 042041
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
 
The cyclone's cloud pattern is quite disorganized, with little 
deep convection near the center.  The current intensity estimate is 
30 kt, although this may be generous.  Since the center should 
remain over land into Friday morning, some additional weakening 
could occur during the next 12-24 hours.  A re-intensification 
trend is expected to commence in 36 hours, assuming that the center 
moves back into the Gulf of Mexico by then.  As noted earlier, the 
atmospheric environment over the Gulf is not particularly conducive 
for strengthening, with moderate southwesterly shear and some 
mid-level dry air.  There are a number of arc clouds noted in 
satellite images over the Gulf at this time, which is indicative of 
drier air at mid-levels.  As in the earlier advisories, the NHC 
intensity forecast is higher than the model consensus.  Due to the 
limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some 
uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the 
northern Gulf coast.

The system is turning to the left as it executes a partial cyclonic 
loop within a broad gyre.  Beginning tomorrow night, Cristobal 
should head northward over the Gulf into a weakness in the 
subtropical ridge.  There has not been much change in the official 
track forecast, which follows the simple and corrected dynamical 
model consensus.  The ECMWF model does show a little more shift to 
the left in 3-4 days which is also reflected in the NHC track.  
This should not be considered as a significant change, however, 
especially for a broad cyclone such as this one.
 
The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is reflected 
in the official wind radii forecast.  This suggests that when the 
storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may 
occur at a large distance from the center.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in
portions of Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to
produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the
week.  The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far
southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also
extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El
Salvador.  This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local
weather office for more information.
 
2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  There is a risk of tropical storm
force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida
Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the
Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will
arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals
center.  Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued
tonight or Friday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 17.5N  90.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 18.4N  90.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/1800Z 20.1N  90.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  06/0600Z 21.9N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  06/1800Z 23.8N  90.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  07/0600Z 25.6N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  07/1800Z 27.5N  90.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  08/1800Z 31.0N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
120H  09/1800Z 34.0N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2020                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 042040
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020               
2100 UTC THU JUN 04 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                     
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   2(12)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  16(17)   4(21)   1(22)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   9(14)   2(16)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  20(21)  10(31)   1(32)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   3(17)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   3(18)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   3(17)
LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   3(18)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)   1(17)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   1(17)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   3(11)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   2(10)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Depression Cristobal Graphics

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 20:41:47 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 21:25:01 GMT