NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories
Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000 ABNT20 KNHC 212308 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic a few hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. A trough of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is unlikely to occur during the next few days as it passes near western or central Cuba, and moves over the Straits of Florida. By late weekend or early next week, however, some slow development of this system is possible while it moves generally northeastward near the central Bahamas. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
...EPSILON EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE TOMORROW... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Oct 21 the center of Epsilon was located near 29.6, -60.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 12A
Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 212348 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 800 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 ...EPSILON EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 60.5W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.5 West. Epsilon has been moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) over the past few hours, but a northwestward motion is expected tonight and Thursday. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the north-northwest or north by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some small fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Thursday and continue into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450 miles (720 km) mainly to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 951 mb (28.08 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight and continuing intermittently through late Thursday. SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 12
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212051 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.0W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......390NE 120SE 120SW 300NW. 12 FT SEAS..720NE 360SE 450SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 60.0W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 59.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.5N 60.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...330NE 150SE 130SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.4N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...260NE 200SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.2N 61.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...270NE 220SE 170SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N 59.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 60.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 12
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212055 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020 Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify this afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is very impressive, with a warm well-defined eye and a closed ring of eyewall convection with cloud tops colder than -60 deg C. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Epsilon earlier today measured SFMR winds of around 100 kt and max flight level winds of 100 kt. Dropsonde data indicated peak surface winds of 106 kt with deeper-layer averages of 95-100 kt, which also lends support to the higher SFMR winds, and surface pressures have fallen since the special advisory. Therefore the initial intensity is raised to 100 kt, making Epsilon the 4th major hurricane of the season. Epsilon's estimated motion is 305/9 kt, and the hurricane is expected to gradually turn more northwestward tonight as it is steered by a mid-level ridge building to its north and east. Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the ridge becomes oriented east of the hurricane, Epsilon will turn northward and move into the mid-latitudes, where it is expected to accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend. There was a westward shift noted in a couple of the track models, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in the near-term period to better reflect the guidance consensus. As Epsilon continues to gain latitude, environmental conditions will become increasingly unfavorable for additional strengthening. The hurricane is forecast to move over cooler waters beginning tonight, and southerly deep-layer shear is expected within the next 24-48 h. With that being said, small intensity fluctuations cannot be completely ruled out tonight given Epsilon's development trends and well-organized structure. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to the SHIPS guidance for the first 24-36 h of the forecast period. Afterwards, the official forecast shows more steady weakening with the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, and the new NHC intensity prediction follows the intensity consensus. Epsilon could begin its extratropical transition by Sunday night, and it is forecast to be a powerful extratropical cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic by day 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda. 2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands. These conditions are expected to spread to portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 29.6N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 30.5N 60.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.8N 61.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 33.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 34.4N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 36.2N 61.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 38.3N 59.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 44.5N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 54.0N 28.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020
000
FONT12 KNHC 212052
PWSAT2
HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 7(24)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10)
BERMUDA 34 28 31(59) 10(69) 2(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73)
BERMUDA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE
Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 23:52:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 21:25:06 GMT