NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories


Tropical Weather

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 212308
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Epsilon, located over the central Atlantic a few hundred miles 
east-southeast of Bermuda. 

A trough of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea 
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Development of this system is unlikely to occur during the next few 
days as it passes near western or central Cuba, and moves over the 
Straits of Florida.  By late weekend or early next week, however, 
some slow development of this system is possible while it moves 
generally northeastward near the central Bahamas.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of 
Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)

...EPSILON EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE TOMORROW...
 As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Oct 21
 the center of Epsilon was located near 29.6, -60.5
 with movement WNW at 10 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 951 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 12A

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 212348
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Epsilon Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
800 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020
 
...EPSILON EXPECTED TO PASS EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE TOMORROW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 60.5W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Epsilon was located
near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 60.5 West.  Epsilon has been
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) over the past
few hours, but a northwestward motion is expected tonight and
Thursday.  The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the
north-northwest or north by Thursday night.  On the forecast track,
the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach to
Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Epsilon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some small fluctuations in intensity are
possible tonight.  Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on
Thursday and continue into the weekend.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450
miles (720 km) mainly to the north of the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 951 mb (28.08 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight and
continuing intermittently through late Thursday.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Epsilon are affecting Bermuda, the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the Leeward Islands, and are
expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States
and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 12

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 212051
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N  60.0W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  955 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......390NE 120SE 120SW 300NW.
12 FT SEAS..720NE 360SE 450SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N  60.0W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N  59.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.5N  60.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...330NE 150SE 130SW 260NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 31.8N  61.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...270NE 180SE 140SW 220NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 34.4N  62.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...260NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 36.2N  61.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...270NE 220SE 170SW 210NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.3N  59.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 44.5N  47.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 54.0N  28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N  60.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 212055
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020
 
Epsilon has continued to defy expectations and rapidly intensify 
this afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is very 
impressive, with a warm well-defined eye and a closed ring of 
eyewall convection with cloud tops colder than -60 deg C. An Air 
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft that investigated Epsilon earlier 
today measured SFMR winds of around 100 kt and max flight level 
winds of 100 kt. Dropsonde data indicated peak surface winds of 106 
kt with deeper-layer averages of 95-100 kt, which also lends support 
to the higher SFMR winds, and surface pressures have fallen since 
the special advisory. Therefore the initial intensity is raised to 
100 kt, making Epsilon the 4th major hurricane of the season.

Epsilon's estimated motion is 305/9 kt, and the hurricane is 
expected to gradually turn more northwestward tonight as it is 
steered by a mid-level ridge building to its north and east. 
Epsilon is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest 
approach to the island Thursday afternoon or evening. As the 
ridge becomes oriented east of the hurricane, Epsilon will turn 
northward and move into the mid-latitudes, where it is expected to 
accelerate northeastward across the central Atlantic this weekend. 
There was a westward shift noted in a couple of the track models, 
and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly westward in 
the near-term period to better reflect the guidance consensus.

As Epsilon continues to gain latitude, environmental conditions will 
become increasingly unfavorable for additional strengthening. The 
hurricane is forecast to move over cooler waters beginning tonight, 
and southerly deep-layer shear is expected within the next 24-48 h. 
With that being said, small intensity fluctuations cannot be 
completely ruled out tonight given Epsilon's development trends and 
well-organized structure. The NHC intensity forecast lies closest to 
the SHIPS guidance for the first 24-36 h of the forecast period. 
Afterwards, the official forecast shows more steady weakening with 
the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, and the new NHC 
intensity prediction follows the intensity consensus. Epsilon could 
begin its extratropical transition by Sunday night, and it is 
forecast to be a powerful extratropical cyclone over the 
northeastern Atlantic by day 5.
 
Key Messages:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
this evening and continuing intermittently through late Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
 
2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands.  These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 29.6N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 30.5N  60.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 31.8N  61.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 33.0N  62.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 34.4N  62.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 36.2N  61.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 38.3N  59.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 44.5N  47.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 54.0N  28.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 212052
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12               
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL272020               
2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE  
29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   7(24)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)
 
BERMUDA        34 28  31(59)  10(69)   2(71)   2(73)   X(73)   X(73)
BERMUDA        50  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER REINHART/BLAKE

Hurricane Epsilon Graphics

Hurricane Epsilon 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 23:52:04 GMT

Hurricane Epsilon 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2020 21:25:06 GMT