NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecasts and Advisories


Tropical Weather

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140524
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Josephine, located over the tropical Atlantic Ocean several 
hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

A broad area of low pressure over eastern North Carolina is 
forecast to move east-northeastward across the north Atlantic well 
to the southeast of New England and to the south of the Canadian 
Maritime provinces over the next several days.  This system could 
acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next 
few days while it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Storm Josephine (AT1/AL112020)

...JOSEPHINE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 13
 the center of Josephine was located near 14.8, -52.2
 with movement WNW at 17 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 140234
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020
 
...JOSEPHINE HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 52.2W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Josephine
was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 52.2 West. Josephine
is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days
followed by a turn toward the northwest late this weekend or early
next week.  On the forecast track the center of Josephine is
expected to pass to the northeast of the Leeward Islands over the
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected through Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 140233
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020
0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  52.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  52.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  51.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N  54.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N  56.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.8N  59.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE  20SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 20.0N  62.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.3N  64.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.8N  66.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 26.0N  67.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N  66.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N  52.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 140235
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112020
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 13 2020
 
Enhanced infrared GOES 16 imagery and a recent ASCAT-A overpass
indicated that the center of circulation is still located to
the south of a rather shapeless deep convective mass.  Recent
images show a small burst developing just to the west of the center,
but the associated cloud tops are already warming.  Based on the
overall cloud pattern, light southerly shear and a dry, relatively
stable surrounding environment continue to hamper significant
development.  There were no changes to the satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is once
again held at a possibly generous 40 kt.
 
Josephine's relatively small window of opportunity for further
strengthening is within the next 18 to 24 hours.  The forecast
still shows a peak intensity of 50 kt at the time and is above all
of the skilled guidance.  After which, strong southwesterly shear
produced by a northeast to southwest oriented deep-layer
mid-Atlantic trough is expected to induce gradual weakening.  This
inhibiting upper wind pattern is forecast to affect the cyclone
through day 5.  The NHC forecast through 60 hours is based on the
better performing IVCN consensus which consists of the Decay SHIPS,
LGEM and the hurricane models.  Beyond mid-period, the forecast is
basically a blend of the IVCN and the global models which now shows
Josephine degenerating into a remnant low at day 5.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/15
kt within the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high situated
to the northeast of Josephine.  Weakening of the western portion of
the ridge should cause Josephine to turn northwestward in 3 days,
followed by a turn generally northward at day 4 in response to a
major shortwave trough approaching the east coast of the U.S. and
the western Atlantic.  The official forecast is a little faster than
the previous one through 5 days and is once again close to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus model.
 
Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts.  However,
interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until
the storm has passed north of that area.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 14.8N  52.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 15.8N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.3N  56.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 18.8N  59.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 20.0N  62.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 21.3N  64.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 22.8N  66.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 26.0N  67.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 29.5N  66.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020                                              

000
FONT11 KNHC 140234
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112020               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 14 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Josephine Graphics

Tropical Storm Josephine 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 02:36:39 GMT

Tropical Storm Josephine 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Aug 2020 03:24:36 GMT