000
FXUS62 KFFC 240257
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1057 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018


.UPDATE...

Current forecast looks to be on track. No major changes just minor
tweaks to temps. Drier airmass still in place through much of the
short term period.

Reaves

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Dry and seasonal conditions persist across the area. On the backside
of a long-wave trough currently digging across the Northeast CONUS,
a reinforcing shot of some drier/cooler air will move across north
and central GA tonight. Quite a bit of high level moisture/clouds
streaming across the region will gradually diminish as NW flow aloft
becomes more pronounced tonight.

Wednesday/Wednesday night... changes are definitely in store by
Thu/Fri but the Wed/Wed ngt period will continue to be relatively
quiet. High temps will be similar to today, generally in the 60s to
lower 70s. High-level moisture will once again increase across the
area from SW to NE, Wednesday night. If the high clouds get in early
enough, this could keep temps from falling much overnight,
especially from Atlanta to Macon west toward the Alabama state line.
Any rain will hold off until during the day (Thursday) at this
point.

DJN.83

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Models in pretty good agreement with the long term. The remnants
of Willa will begin moving into the southwest part of the CWA
Thursday morning and spread across most of the CWA Thursday
afternoon. As the surface low moves across north Florida, a ridge
of high pressure will "wedge" the CWA Thursday night and Friday.
Isentropic lift above the wedge will keep widespread rain over the
CWA Thursday night, ending from the west on Friday. Total QPF
amounts will be around 1 inch or less from Thursday through Friday
night. Some drying on Saturday although a weak system moving
across the Tennessee Valley will keep some low pops over the CWA.
Weak impulses will continue to move across the Tennessee Valley
Saturday night through Monday as the H5 trough digs over the
eastern U.S.

With a strong east flow with the wedge Thursday and Friday, went
a few degrees lower than the Superblend. Also more with a MAV/MET
blend on the winds Thursday night as the wedge should be
strengthening and therefore winds should be running a little
higher than Superblend.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with mainly
high clouds over much of the area, with a low VFR deck mainly in
central GA affecting CSG/MCN taf sites. Winds are currently NW,
but are expected to shift to the NNE/NE Wednesday morning around
12 to 14z and then mainly E/NE after. Winds will remain light,
less than 10 kts through the period.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High on all elements.

Reaves

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          46  70  45  57 /   0   0   5  40
Atlanta         47  70  51  57 /   0   0  10  50
Blairsville     38  66  41  54 /   0   0   5  40
Cartersville    41  70  48  57 /   0   0   5  50
Columbus        50  74  55  60 /   0   0  10  80
Gainesville     45  68  47  55 /   0   0   5  40
Macon           48  73  50  61 /   0   0  10  60
Rome            43  70  47  57 /   0   0   5  50
Peachtree City  44  71  49  58 /   0   0  10  60
Vidalia         55  74  50  65 /   0   0   5  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Reaves

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion