Hazard Outlook ... Broad high pressure will persist over the southeast through the rest of the week, limiting daily shower and thunderstorm activity and keeping temperatures well above normal. The ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the weekend, resulting in near-record high temperatures each day.

GOES-R Convection Initiation Probability

GOES-R Convection Initiation Probability

This product, brought to you by UA Huntsville, is from the recently launched GOES-R / GOES-16 weather satalite. As UA Huntsville explains, "The SATCAST algorithm produces 0-1 hour forecasts (i.e. "nowcasts") of new storms, specifically the occurrence of radar/rainfall echoes of 35 dBZ intensity or greater, which is a heavy rain shower. Some of these storms will produce lightning. The colored objects are growing cumulus clouds within the GOES imagery. Their growth is monitored over successive 7-15 min images in GOES data, using infrared temperature fields. The infrared fields help measure cloud growth rates, cloud depths, and if a cloud has ice or water particles at cloud top (usually the transition to ice leads to increased precipitation production, and suggests an occurrence of lightning). The colors, so-called "strength of signal" (SS), represent increasing likelihoods that a 35 dBZ echo (i.e. a heavy rain shower) will occur from a given cloud object. For objects with SS values <40 (blue colors), one can interpret these as relatively un-developed clouds, or cumulus clouds with small spatial dimensions, and therefore less likely to make significant rain in the coming 30-60 min. Warmer (orange, red) colored objects instead imply taller, more rapidly growing cumulus clouds that therefore have a >75-80% change of becoming a storm in the coming 30-60 min. One needs to note the motion of a given object so to estimate the ground location where the rain will fall.".