Models starting to agree: another chaotic weather pattern may bring ice early next week.

February 9, 2021~

Models starting to agree: another chaotic weather pattern may bring ice early next week.

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You’ve probably heard people talking about this weekend and the winter weather potential we may see going into next week. Technically, we have a few systems we are currently watching, that will most likely impact our region this week and next. Confidence increases over the next two or three days, and you’ll see us post updates on Twitter @weatherupstate. But for now, let’s talk about what we’re dealing with here.

The Good News: Models suggesting wintry precipitation early next week here in the Upstate.

The Bad News: It’s not the wintry fun we actually want.

Short Term Forecast: Heavy rains and arctic air

Over the next few days, a front will move into the Southeast that will produce heavy showers and possibly thunderstorms. Pockets of heavy rain likely here in the Upstate, and as of now, the NWS SPC has placed us in a ‘Thunderstorm’ Categorical Outlook on Thursday. We’re not dealing with organized severe weather, but expect heavy rains at times Thursday and Friday; possibly up to 3″ in some areas.

Rain chances drop on Saturday, and moves out by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures are going to get a bit colder come this weekend, after the front moves through, when a shot of cold Arctic air surges south into our area. Come Sunday, we’ll see a low of 27°F! That’s when things get interesting….

Next Week: Trouble….?

For the last few days, models have hinted at the possibility of rain, freezing rain and sleet in parts of the Upstate, next Monday and Tuesday. This far out, confidence is still an issue and we aren’t sure how far the cold air will dip into South Carolina. As of today, models don’t favor snow; but we could also just end up with a rainy mess. The next few days will be key, as the forecast solidifies.

But, right now, we have A) Frigid artic air that will be in place and B) moisture moving into the forecasted area. Such freezing temperatures, bundled with moisture, is a disaster in the making. No, we’re not talking about the fun, playful snow we saw last weekend. The weather pattern forecasted for early next week supports cold air near the ground and warmer temps above ground, which is a recipe for sleet or freezing rain, not snow. TROUBLE, as we all know how much ice and freezing rain can wreak havoc on power lines, tree limbs, etc. Should be an interesting week, and we of course will keep an eye on it for you. is dedicated to helping #yeahTHATgreenville stay #weatheraware. We are a ‘Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador’ & a certified ‘Skywarn Storm Spotter.’ Our site and Twitter account provides instant weather alerts and warnings, conditions and forecasts, and HD Storm Track Radar for Greenville.

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