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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 4 00:55:01 UTC 2022

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 4 00:55:01 UTC 2022.


SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Oct 4 00:55:01 UTC 2022

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 4 00:55:01 UTC 2022.


SPC Oct 4, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 PM CDT Mon Oct 03 2022

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for potentially damaging wind gusts near the Phoenix area
is expected to diminish early this evening as thunderstorm activity
begins to weaken.

...01Z Outlook Update...
Due to generally weak deep-layer shear, the large cluster of
thunderstorms supported by forcing associated with a short wave
impulse digging southeast of the Great Basin never became
particularly organized.  And generally weak CAPE across the lower
deserts has precluded substantive further intensification of
convection as it propagated southward off the Mogollon Rim. 
However, the very warm, dry and deeply mixed boundary allowed for
considerable strong outflow, the consolidating leading edge of which
has now advanced south and east of the Phoenix area.  As the weak
boundary-layer instability wanes and thunderstorms begin to weaken,
the potential for additional strong/damaging wind gusts is expected
to diminish through 02-03Z.

..Kerr.. 10/04/2022

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