SPC Forecast Products
Current Mesoscale Discussions
SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 8 05:46:02 UTC 2023
No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 8 05:46:02 UTC 2023.
SPC MD 951
MD 0951 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TXMesoscale Discussion 0951 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Areas affected...parts of south TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080535Z - 080730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A bow echo over northern Mexico will cross the Rio Grande around 130am CDT (0630 UTC) and pose an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) tonight as it moves east-southeastward around 40 kt. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature bow echo located 45 mi south-southwest of Del Rio moving quickly east-southeast at 40 kt. Surface observational sites ahead of the squall line show temperatures in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. Despite nocturnal cooling that has occurred this evening and appreciable convective inhibition, steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8 deg C/km) and moderate buoyancy in the presence of strong effective shear, will aid in storm longevity as this cluster moves into portions of south TX tonight. Given the organized character of the thunderstorm complex with an implied northern bookend vortex, strong to severe gusts on an isolated basis seem plausible near the Rio Grande during the next few hours. The expected coverage of the severe risk and some uncertainty in the timing/location of the squall line's decay phase will likely preclude a small severe thunderstorm watch issuance. Nonetheless, convective trends will be monitored. ..Smith.. 06/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 29100066 29130058 28940017 27979910 27369915 27279970 28760087 29100066Read more
SPC Jun 8, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and hail will persist for a few more hours across portions of eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas. ...Southern High Plains south to the Rio Grande... Thunderstorms are ongoing at this time from portions of northeastern New Mexico southward to the Texas Big Bend area, within an airmass that remains moderately unstable (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE). With moderate mid-level westerly flow atop the area, and some increase in southeasterly low-level winds expected in the next few hours, storms should persist, with some attendant risk for locally gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail with a couple of the strongest storms. One cell in particular -- currently on the Brewster/Pecos County line -- is likely producing hail in excess of severe levels, but will continue moving southward and eventually across the Rio Grande into Mexico. By mid to late evening, a diurnal decrease in storm intensity should bring any lingering severe risk to an end. ..Goss.. 06/08/2023Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookDay 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will continue to sag southward along the East Coast today as broad cyclonic upper flow persists over the Southwestern U.S. Dry surface air will meander across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic toward the central Appalachians, while seasonably dry air overspreads the Desert Southwest by afternoon peak heating. In both regimes, the surface wind field is expected to be weak, with wildfire-spread potential being more localized. As such, no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 06/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookDay 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough on the East Coast will begin to eject into the Atlantic as a mid-level impulse overspreads the Desert Southwest tomorrow/Friday. Dry air will continue to meander around the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and points eastward to the Carolina Piedmont, but with weak surface wind fields. The lack of stronger surface winds suggests that fire-weather spread potential should remain more localized. As the western upper-level impulse overspreads the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. 15 mph sustained westerly surface flow is forecast to overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more