SPC Forecast Products

SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 30 12:44:02 UTC 2021

No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 30 12:44:02 UTC 2021.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Nov 30 12:44:02 UTC 2021

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 30 12:44:02 UTC 2021.

SPC Nov 30, 2021 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output indicates that a substantially more
amplified/blocked regime may evolve across the southern mid-latitude
and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern portions of North
America, including a large-scale trough and/or developing closed low
near Baja early next week.  However, there might not be significant
change to the northern mid-latitude westerlies, with strong flow
persisting through much of the period in a broadly anticyclonic belt
across the eastern Pacific into the northern U.S. Great Plains,
before transitioning to broadly cyclonic east of the Mississippi
Valley.  Although a couple of strengthening short wave perturbations
progressing through this regime might be accompanied by thunderstorm
development across parts of the south central U.S., it appears that
trailing reinforcing intrusions of cool and/or dry air will preclude
deep boundary-layer moistening over much of the Gulf of Mexico. 
This seems likely to continue to negate, or at least temper, the
risk for severe weather.


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