SPC Forecast Products

Current Mesoscale Discussions


SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265

WW 265 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 070210Z - 070900Z
      
WW 0265 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
910 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  much of North Dakota
  eastern South Dakota

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 910 PM
  until 400 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms -- producing widespread
damaging winds -- will continue advancing rapidly northeastward
across the Dakotas tonight.  In addition to the damaging wind
threat, hail will also be possible as storms progress across the
watch area.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
northwest of Williston ND to 35 miles east northeast of Aberdeen SD.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 264...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24050.

...Goss

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265 Status Reports

WW 0265 Status Updates
      
WW 0265 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 265

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE PIR
TO 30 WNW ABR TO 30 S JMS TO 35 NNW JMS TO 35 ENE MOT TO 85 NNW
DVL.

..LEITMAN..06/07/20

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...FSD...ABR...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 265 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NDC003-005-021-027-031-039-045-063-069-071-073-079-081-091-095-
070740-

ND 
.    NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARNES               BENSON              DICKEY              
EDDY                 FOSTER              GRIGGS              
LAMOURE              NELSON              PIERCE              
RAMSEY               RANSOM              ROLETTE             
SARGENT              STEELE              TOWNER              


SDC005-013-017-025-029-037-045-049-057-059-069-073-091-111-115-
070740-

SD 
.    SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEADLE               BROWN               BUFFALO             
CLARK                CODINGTON           DAY                 
EDMUNDS              FAULK               HAMLIN              
HAND                 HYDE                JERAULD             
MARSHALL             SANBORN             SPINK               
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264 Status Reports

WW 0264 Status Updates
      
WW 0264 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 264

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW MHN
TO 30 S PHP TO 25 WNW PHP TO 50 NW PHP TO 50 SSW Y22 TO 35 W Y22
TO 30 S GDV TO 65 NNW MLS.

..SPC..06/07/20

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...LBF...UNR...FSD...ABR...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MTC021-025-033-055-079-083-085-105-109-070340-

MT 
.    MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DAWSON               FALLON              GARFIELD            
MCCONE               PRAIRIE             RICHLAND            
ROOSEVELT            VALLEY              WIBAUX              


NEC005-009-017-029-031-075-085-091-101-103-111-113-117-135-171-
070340-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARTHUR               BLAINE              BROWN               
CHASE                CHERRY              GRANT               
HAYES                HOOKER              KEITH               
KEYA PAHA            LINCOLN             LOGAN               
MCPHERSON            PERKINS             THOMAS              


NDC001-007-011-033-037-041-085-087-089-070340-
Read more

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Jun 7 06:46:02 UTC 2020

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 7 06:46:02 UTC 2020.


SPC Jun 7, 2020 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of tornadoes, large to very large hail,
and severe gusts are possible across parts of the Dakotas and
Minnesota.  A risk for tornadoes may also develop across the central
Gulf Coast region in association with the landfall of Tropical Storm
Cristobal.

...Synopsis...
A potent large-scale mid-level trough over the western states will
slowly pivot east with a broad belt of strong flow extending from
the base of the trough northeastward into the Upper Midwest.  An
elongated area of surface low pressure will remain across the
central High Plains northeastward into the eastern Dakotas.  A warm
frontal zone will be draped across MN from north-northwest to
south-southeast by early evening.  Farther south, tropical cyclone
Cristobal will make landfall over the central Gulf Coast and move
inland into the lower MS Valley.  

...Upper Midwest...
A strong belt of southwesterly 500mb flow will remain overhead as a
lead shortwave trough moves northward into central Saskatchewan
during the day.  A weaker disturbance is forecast to move northeast
from the central High Plains into the central Dakotas by mid-late
afternoon.  Southerly low-level flow will contribute to moisture
streaming northward through the eastern Dakotas during the day. 
Strong heating in wake of earlier cloud debris will combine with the
increasingly rich low-level moisture to yield a moderate to very
unstable airmass across the Dakotas and into MN.  Lowest 100mb mean
mixing ratios near 16 g/kg were sampled by the Saturday evening
raobs over northeast KS/eastern NE.  This moisture will advect
northward and contribute to dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to
lower 70s across the Red River Valley.  Near the warm frontal zone,
backed low-level flow coupled with enlarging hodographs during the
afternoon into the early evening will support supercells with strong
low-level rotation developing in the warm sector.  Several tornadoes
are possible, including the possibility for a strong tornado or two.
Farther southwest into south-central SD westward to the Black Hills,
strong heating within a more deeply mixed boundary layer will likely
also contribute to the erosion of a capping inversion by late
afternoon/early evening.  Supercells capable of large to very large
hail and severe gusts are possible.  The upscale growth of storms
into clusters and bowing segments is expected to eventually evolve
as the LLJ intensifies during the evening.  

...UT/CO/WY/MT...
The left exit region of a powerful cyclonically curved upper jet is
forecast to overspread the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies
during the day.  Steep low-level lapse rates and strong mid-level
flow will support strong to severe thunderstorms developing during
peak heating.  Isolated severe gusts are the primary concern.  A
portion of the this region from northeast UT into northwest CO and
into central WY may need to be considered for higher severe-wind
probabilities in later outlooks.  

...Central Gulf Coast...
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center regarding
timing/forecast path information for tropical cyclone Cristobal.  As
TC Cristobal approaches the coast today, wind fields are forecast to
intensify.  Diurnal destabilization will contribute to a conditional
risk for shallow rotating storms and a couple of tornadoes are
possible.  The tornado threat will likely spread further inland
during the evening into the overnight and into southern/central MS
by early Monday morning.

..Smith/Nauslar.. 06/07/2020

Read more

SPC Jun 7, 2020 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2020

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible Monday from Minnesota
southwestward into the central Plains. Isolated severe weather is
possible in association with Cristobal over the lower Mississippi
and Sabine Valleys.

...Central Plains into MN...
Strong southwest flow aloft will extend from NM into the northern
Plains, with neutral height tendencies for much of the day. At the
surface, a front will extend from MN into northeast CO/northwest KS,
with low pressure developing near the CO/KS border and across
northern MN.

Areas of moderate instability will develop along the front as
low-level winds remain southeasterly and with dewpoints into the
upper 60s F. Lift will become maximized mainly near or after 00Z,
with the strongest storms likely over central NE and possibly
northwest KS near the low-level lapse rates plume. Storms along the
boundary, and even on the north side may remain surface based, with
long hodographs and a narrow zone of favorable SRH for supercells.
Large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two appear
possible.

Farther north into MN, minor upper ridging will occur during the
day, allowing moderate to strong instability to develop. Lift near
the front will increase during the evening, with mixed storm modes
expected producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Lower MS Valley/Sabine Valley...
The remnants of Cristobal will continue north into AR, along with a
moist air mass and areas of enhanced shear. The most probable area
of cells producing a brief tornado or two will be east of the low
track where SRH will exceed 300 m2/s2 coincident with MUCAPE over
500 J/kg. 

In addition, other bands of storms are possible over far eastern TX
into western LA during the late afternoon, moving in a southeastward
direction. While low-level shear will be weaker in this area, storms
may pose a localized wind gust risk or even a tornado due to
stronger instability and sufficient low-level SRH.

..Jewell.. 06/07/2020

Read more