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Current Mesoscale Discussions

SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 8 05:46:02 UTC 2023

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 8 05:46:02 UTC 2023.

SPC MD 951

MD 0951 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0951
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Areas affected...parts of south TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 080535Z - 080730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A bow echo over northern Mexico will cross the Rio Grande
around 130am CDT (0630 UTC) and pose an isolated risk for severe
gusts (60-70 mph) tonight as it moves east-southeastward around 40

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a mature bow echo located 45 mi
south-southwest of Del Rio moving quickly east-southeast at 40 kt. 
Surface observational sites ahead of the squall line show
temperatures in the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s. 
Despite nocturnal cooling that has occurred this evening and
appreciable convective inhibition, steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (8
deg C/km) and moderate buoyancy in the presence of strong effective
shear, will aid in storm longevity as this cluster moves into
portions of south TX tonight.  Given the organized character of the
thunderstorm complex with an implied northern bookend vortex, strong
to severe gusts on an isolated basis seem plausible near the Rio
Grande during the next few hours.  The expected coverage of the
severe risk and some uncertainty in the timing/location of the
squall line's decay phase will likely preclude a small severe
thunderstorm watch issuance.  Nonetheless, convective trends will be

..Smith.. 06/08/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   29100066 29130058 28940017 27979910 27369915 27279970
            28760087 29100066 

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SPC Jun 8, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z


A few thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and hail will
persist for a few more hours across portions of eastern New Mexico
and adjacent western Texas.

...Southern High Plains south to the Rio Grande...
Thunderstorms are ongoing at this time from portions of northeastern
New Mexico southward to the Texas Big Bend area, within an airmass
that remains moderately unstable (1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer

With moderate mid-level westerly flow atop the area, and some
increase in southeasterly low-level winds expected in the next few
hours, storms should persist, with some attendant risk for locally
gusty/damaging winds and marginal hail with a couple of the
strongest storms.  One cell in particular -- currently on the
Brewster/Pecos County line -- is likely producing hail in excess of
severe levels, but will continue moving southward and eventually
across the Rio Grande into Mexico.  By mid to late evening, a
diurnal decrease in storm intensity should bring any lingering
severe risk to an end.

..Goss.. 06/08/2023

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z


A mid-level trough will continue to sag southward along the East
Coast today as broad cyclonic upper flow persists over the
Southwestern U.S. Dry surface air will meander across the Ohio
Valley and Mid Atlantic toward the central Appalachians, while
seasonably dry air overspreads the Desert Southwest by afternoon
peak heating. In both regimes, the surface wind field is expected to
be weak, with wildfire-spread potential being more localized. As
such, no fire weather highlights introduced this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 06/08/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

The mid-level trough on the East Coast will begin to eject into the
Atlantic as a mid-level impulse overspreads the Desert Southwest
tomorrow/Friday. Dry air will continue to meander around the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and points eastward to the Carolina Piedmont,
but with weak surface wind fields. The lack of stronger surface
winds suggests that fire-weather spread potential should remain more
localized. As the western upper-level impulse overspreads the
Southwest, boundary-layer mixing will encourage dry and breezy
conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West
Texas. 15 mph sustained westerly surface flow is forecast to overlap
with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting the
introduction of Elevated highlights.

..Squitieri.. 06/08/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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