000
FXUS62 KGSP 301442
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
942 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will sweep east across the forecast area through
today. Dry and cooler high pressure will then dominate the weather
tonight through Friday. Another cold front will arrive from the
north on Saturday and possibly stall in or near the area through the
late weekend and into early next week, keeping the weather unsettled.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM...The broad band of light to moderate rain has
pretty much exited stage right, while a broken line of mainly
light showers can be seen entering the NC mountains along the
sfc cold front. This front will cross the Piedmont by midday, but
the showers will struggle to survive off the mountains thanks to
downslope flow. The heavy rain and thunder threats seem to be over,
so the HWO will be updated with no hazards. Elevated stream levels
should be cresting in the next couple hours, so no new flooding
is expected. Temps are actually starting out a little cooler than
expected in a lot of locations, and with CAA ramping up by early
aftn, have bumped max temps down a tad with the latest CONMOS. But
otherwise, no significant changes with this update.

Otherwise, strong high pres builds in behind the front and winds
will shift nw/ly and become gusty by mid/late afternoon. Max temps
will reach a couple cats abv normal in sw/ly flow and an increase
in insol. Mins will drop 8-10 degrees below normal thanks to strong
CAA. With moderate winds persisting across the mtns, wind chill
values will make it feel like the mid-teens in the valleys and
the single digits across the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 am Wednesday: Cool and dry high pressure will be in
control for much of the short term, with temperatures expected to
average 5-10 degrees below normal through Friday. However, a warming
trend begins Fri night, as heights rise along the East Coast as a
consequence of falling heights across the central Conus. Clouds are
also expected to begin increasing Fri night as broad warm advection
regime begins impinging on the southern Appalachians and vicinity in
advance of the next frontal system. While moisture within this
regime will be somewhat limited owing to a surface ridge extending
into the northern Gulf of Mexico, the QPF response in short term
model guidance is sufficient to advertise a small PoP across the
northwest half of the forecast area by daybreak Saturday. Min temps
Sat morning are expected to be 5-10 degrees above climo...and likely
too warm to support any mountain p-type concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 am Wednesday: A broad view of the extended period reveals
a somewhat unsettled and generally mild regime, although details
remain very much up in the air. A somewhat moisture-challenged cold
front will cross the CWA Saturday, with PoPs for light precip
generally in the 20-40% range. However, with the next major storm
system making landfall on the West Coast, and a strong short wave
trough passing quickly into the Canadian Maritimes, the boundary is
expected to become increasingly stretched in a direction that will
align it with zonal flow aloft...likely resulting in the front
becoming quasi-stationary across our near the forecast area into
early next week. This is expected to create a mostly cloudy regime
w/ small diurnal temp ranges and perhaps showery and/or drizzly
weather for portions of the area Sunday into Monday. At some point,
the boundary probably will return north as a rain-making warm front
in response to central Conus height falls. However, the global
models are mostly at odds as to when this will occur. As such, we
will advertise slight-to-middling chance PoPs from Sunday through the
end of the forecast cycle. For much of the period...max temps are
forecast close to climo, while min temps are expected to be a solid
10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread precip shield moving across the
area will bring light to moderate rainfall this morning to all TAF
sites. A period of general thunder is also possible across the
Upstate terminals and at KCLT thru 13z. The main affect will
lowering fight restrictions to IFR/LIFR mainly due to CIGS, while
mostly MVFR VSBY will had outside of heavier showers where IFR or
lower VSBY will be possible. Reduced flight restrictions will linger
thru the morning hours and improve by the early afternoon. As a pre-
frontal 60 kt llvl jet traverses the area, a window of LLWS is
possible at KCLT thru 15z. Light to moderate sfc winds will align
se/ly then shift nw/ly and become gusty this afternoon behind a cold
front.

Outlook: Dry high pressure returns Thursday and settles over the
area thru Friday. A cold front sags in from the north Saturday
possibly generating flight restrictions thru the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion