SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 18 12:56:02 UTC 2021

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 18 12:56:02 UTC 2021.


SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Jan 18 12:56:02 UTC 2021

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 18 12:56:02 UTC 2021.


SPC Jan 18, 2021 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0637 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible during the early
morning Tuesday across a portion of central to east Texas.

...Central to east TX...
Persistent low-level warm theta-e advection centered around 850 mb
ahead of a cold front that will advance southeast across the
southern Great Plains should result in at least isolated showers
developing overnight into Tuesday morning. Guidance generally
suggests meager elevated buoyancy will become prevalent after 06Z.
However, zonal mid-level flow and lack of stronger ascent aloft
suggest a relatively warm/dry profile atop the elevated buoyancy
layer may mitigate appreciable deepening of the showers.
Nevertheless, towards the pre-dawn hours, the potential for charge
separation is not entirely negligible. Have added a thunderstorm
area with probabilities appearing to be between 10-20 percent.

..Grams.. 01/18/2021

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SPC Jan 18, 2021 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the continental
United States Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
West-northwest mid-level flow is forecast across much of the U.S. on
Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to be in place
from the southern Plains eastward across the Gulf Coast States. This
will prevent moisture return limiting the potential for
thunderstorms across the continental United States on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/18/2021

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SPC Jan 18, 2021 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Mon Jan 18 2021

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
The medium-range models move a shortwave trough across the Desert
Southwest on Thursday as zonal mid-level flow remains from the
southern Plains to the Eastern Seaboard. Thunderstorm development
will be possible on Thursday across parts of the western and central
Gulf Coast region along the northern edge of a moist airmass.
Instability is expected to be too weak for severe thunderstorm
development. The shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Gulf
Coast States on Friday. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the 
northern part of the moist airmass which should be located from the
Texas Coastal Plain eastward to the Florida Panhandle. Instability
is again forecast to be weak suggesting severe thunderstorm
potential will be minimal.

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
On Saturday, the medium-range models move an upper-level ridge
across the Mississippi Valley as southwest mid-level flow becomes
established from the Four Corners region eastward into the Great
Plains. The models are in reasonable agreement on Sunday moving an
upper-level trough across the Intermountain West. Moisture return is
forecast to take place ahead of this system in parts of the southern
Plains. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the day on
Sunday from Texas northward into Oklahoma along an axis of
instability. Although a severe threat can not be ruled out,
predictability remains low for Sunday. On Monday, the upper-level
trough is forecast to move into the Great Plains as a cold front
advances into the Arklatex. Thunderstorm development will be
possible along and ahead of the front across the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley during the day on Monday. If the forecasts
verify, a severe threat would be possible in areas that can heat up
sufficiently ahead of the front. However, predictability is low this
far out in the forecast period.

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