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Summary for Subtropical Storm Alberto (AT1/AL012018)

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
 As of 2:00 PM EDT Sun May 27
 the center of Alberto was located near 27.7, -84.7
 with movement N at 13 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 994 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Public Advisory Number 9A

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018  

000
WTNT31 KNHC 271743
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Alberto Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
200 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

...ALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Middle of Longboat Key.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at
risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto
was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.7 West.  The
storm is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A turn
toward the north-northwest at a slower forward speed is forecast
to occur later today or tonight.  A north-northwestward to northward
motion is expected Monday through Wednesday.  On the forecast track,
the center of Alberto will cross the eastern and northern Gulf of
Mexico today and approach the northern Gulf Coast in the warning
area tonight or Monday.  Heavy rainfall and tropical storm
conditions will likely reach the northern Gulf Coast well before the
arrival of the center of Alberto.  Alberto is expected to move
northward into the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast before the system
reaches the northern Gulf Coast.  Steady weakening is expected after
landfall, and Alberto is forecast to become a tropical depression by
Monday night or Tuesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily
to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Alberto is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday:

Central Cuba...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of
20 inches.

The Florida panhandle into eastern Alabama and western Georgia...4
to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.

The Florida Keys and south Florida...Additional 3 to 6 inches,
isolated storm totals of 10 inches.

Rest of the Florida peninsula...1 to 4 inches.

Rest of the southeast U.S. from Tennessee to the Carolinas...2 to 6
inches.

Rains in Cuba could produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides. Flooding and flash flooding are possible in the southeast
United States, including Florida.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will spread northward in the
warning area along the west coast of Florida today and will reach
the warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by this evening.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Crystal River to the Florida/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-
related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida
peninsula today.

SURF:  Swells generated by Alberto will affect the eastern and
northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. For more
information, consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018  

000
WTNT21 KNHC 271437
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012018
1500 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF THE
FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CRYSTAL RIVER TO THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONITA BEACH TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  84.4W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N  84.4W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N  84.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.7N  84.9W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.3N  85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 31.6N  86.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 33.6N  86.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.3N  87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 43.3N  84.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 46.5N  79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N  84.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


Subtropical Storm Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018  

000
WTNT41 KNHC 271438
TCDAT1

Subtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018
1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018

The satellite and radar presentation of Alberto has improved
markedly over the past 12 hours or so.  Deep convection has
increased and become organized in a primary band that wraps around
the western and northwestern portions of the storm and the
circulation has also become much better defined than 24 hours ago.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has recently indicated
that the pressure has fallen to 994 mb.  The aircraft has also
reported peak flight-level winds of 49 kt and believable SFMR winds
of around 40 kt, however, the aircraft has not yet sampled the
northwestern portion of the circulation where the deepest convection
is located.  Assuming that there are slightly higher winds in that
area, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.

With deep convection closer to the center and a slightly smaller
radius of maximum winds, it appears that Alberto is beginning its
transition to a tropical cyclone.  The reconnaissance aircraft data
also indicate that a shallow warm core is present.  It is likely
that Alberto will make the transition to tropical storm later today
or tonight.  As this transition occurs, some additional
strengthening is forecast while Alberto moves over marginally warm
sea surface temperatures and the shear relaxes.  However, dry mid-
level air wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation
could slow the intensification process before Alberto reaches the
coast.

The initial motion estimate of 005/12 is again highly uncertain due
to the center re-formations that have occurred over the past 12 to
24 hours.  The cyclone should move generally northward today, then
turn northwestward around the northeastern side of a cutoff low over
the central Gulf of Mexico.  The timing and location of landfall of
the center will be dependent on when the northwestward turn occurs.
The latest ECMWF forecast moves Alberto faster northward before it
makes the turn and therefore brings the center onshore much sooner
and farther eastward than the UKMET and GFS.  The NHC forecast is
near the model consensus, and is somewhat faster than the previous
advisory.  Users should remember not to focus on the exact timing
and location of landfall since wind and rain will continue to spread
northward over the northeastern Gulf Coast well ahead of the center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall with a risk of
flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and
south Florida today.  The risk for heavy rainfall and flooding will
then spread over much of the southeast U.S. tonight and Monday.

2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern
Gulf Coast beginning later today, including areas well east of the
track of Alberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge watch area
are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their local
government officials.

3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida west coast today and within the
warning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight.

4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to
affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through
Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 27.1N  84.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 28.7N  84.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  28/1200Z 30.3N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/0000Z 31.6N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/1200Z 33.6N  86.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/1200Z 38.3N  87.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 96H  31/1200Z 43.3N  84.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1200Z 46.5N  79.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

Subtropical Storm Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018


000
FONT11 KNHC 271437
PWSAT1
                                                                    
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012018               
1500 UTC SUN MAY 27 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34 12   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34 15   6(21)   1(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34 12   2(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34 16   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34 35   2(37)   1(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 26   1(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NAPLES FL      34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
VENICE FL      34 22   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
TAMPA FL       34 38   X(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 62   1(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 51  22(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST MARKS FL    34 64  16(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
ST MARKS FL    50  1   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 78  16(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
APALACHICOLA   50  5  20(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34 92   2(94)   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 16  10(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 50  36(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  1  23(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 11  51(62)   3(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X  13(13)   5(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  3  13(16)   9(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   5( 5)   6(11)   7(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  2  15(17)  17(34)   5(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  5  36(41)   7(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   5( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  4  32(36)   6(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34 10  13(23)   2(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOBILE AL      34  1  12(13)   5(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BURAS LA       34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Subtropical Storm Alberto Graphics


Subtropical Storm Alberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 27 May 2018 17:44:06 GMT

Subtropical Storm Alberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 27 May 2018 14:42:13 GMT

Subtropical Storm Alberto Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map


Subtropical Storm Alberto Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 27 May 2018 15:58:29 GMT

Subtropical Storm Alberto Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map


Subtropical Storm Alberto Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 27 May 2018 14:40:06 GMT

Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA

Issued at 1007 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018


Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Issued at 1144 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018 /1044 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/


Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018


Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018