FXUS62 KFFC 210023 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
723 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018
No changes to the forecast tonight with a quiet night in store.
Needed to increase precip chances for Monday and this affects
n and w GA the most with 60-90 percent pops for the afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 605 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018/
UPDATE FOR AVIATION...
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
An upper level disturbance will approach the area from the west
to begin the short term period. At this time, this system appears
to have limited moisture, and the short term forecast remains free
of precipitation. Cloud coverage is diminishing through the rest
of the afternoon and will then increase again Sunday as the upper
level low positions itself over the area. At the surface, high
pressure will continue to move southeastward into the region which
will increase the low-level southerly flow. As a result, a
warming temperature trend is expected, with high temperatures in
the 50s and lower 60s today and mid to upper 60s Sunday. Lows will
trend warmer as well and and will be in the 30s and lower 40s
Sunday morning and lower to mid 40s Monday morning.
LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
Made no major changes to the extended portion of the forecast.
Two frontal systems expected to impact the CWFA within the day 4
to 7 time frame. The first frontal system is expected Monday
into early Tuesday, with high pressure building in for the
remainder of the week. The next frontal boundary looks to impact
the area next weekend.
Made a few tweaks to the pops for Monday into Tuesday. However,
the best chances for precip remain across the northern part of
the CWFA. Models are still maintaining a brief period of surface
instability during Monday afternoon/evening. The best mid level
energy does get shunted to the north, and the coverage of
thunderstorms should remain on the low side. Only thing of concern
is that even though the best forcing remains well to the north,
the mid level lapse rates remain pretty steep.
High pressure quickly builds in behind the front later on Tuesday
and will remain the dominant weather feature through Friday. Temps
will should remain at or slightly above normal through the
VFR conditions expected through the period. Patchy fog possible
early morning. Scattered 5000-7000 ft cu on Sunday. Surface winds
light and variable overnight and Sunday trending to the SSE
late Sunday but light.
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence for all elements to start.
Medium confidence for early morning vsbys and cloud heights
Low confidence for wind direction on Sunday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 39 66 42 62 / 0 0 0 40
Atlanta 40 65 45 62 / 0 0 0 60
Blairsville 35 62 40 56 / 0 0 0 80
Cartersville 36 65 44 61 / 0 0 0 80
Columbus 41 68 47 68 / 0 0 0 50
Gainesville 41 63 44 58 / 0 0 0 60
Macon 39 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 20
Rome 35 65 44 62 / 0 0 5 80
Peachtree City 37 66 44 64 / 0 0 0 60
Vidalia 42 68 46 71 / 0 0 5 10
NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion