000
FXUS62 KFFC 201150
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
750 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Short term weather will be dependent upon short wave rotating
around Tropical Storm Jose. The short wave will slowly move across
north Georgia. Models diverge on impact of weak low over LA, with
GFS more progressive absorbing impulses over central/south
Georgia this afternoon and Thursday. GFS showing modest CAPE
values of 1200-1500 J/KG each afternoon across central Georgia, as
well as minimal CAPE of 1000-1200 over the foothills of the
Appalachians in northeast Georgia. Will focus POPs, albeit low
end, over these areas this afternoon and again tomorrow. GFS also
showing better moisture over central Georgia through the period
with PWATs near 1.5 inches. Guidance temperatures continue to show
near normal, and are in good agreement. Will use a blend through
the period.

Atwell

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Long term period begins with broad ridge pattern over the eastern
U.S. with flow around the high drawing Atlantic moisture into the
southeast. Impulses within the flow will provide a focus for
diurnally driven showers through mid-weekend, and have generally
kept precip chances slight chance to good chance. Highest PoPs are
expected Friday into Friday night.

Extended models continue to have converging solutions with Tropical
Storm Jose and Hurricane Maria remaining well east of the area.
Maria will pass the South Atlantic Bight Sunday through Tuesday,
with the southeast in the subsidence zone, resulting in a more
stable air mass over the state. Warm temperatures and little
rainfall will continue through next week.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
VFR through the period with patchy IFR/MVFR fog at the usual
suspects. sites. Winds will remain light and variable, favoring
west. Wind speeds will increase after 14Z but remain less than 6
kts before diminishing to light/variable or calm by 04Z. Isolated
showers possible over central GA, but have opted to leave it out
of the TAF for now.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence all elements.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  67  88  67 /  10   5  20  20
Atlanta         88  69  87  69 /  10   5  20  20
Blairsville     82  59  83  61 /  20   0  30  40
Cartersville    87  65  88  67 /  10   0  20  20
Columbus        91  71  91  71 /  20   5  20  20
Gainesville     86  67  86  67 /  10   0  20  20
Macon           90  68  90  68 /  20  10  20  20
Rome            88  65  88  66 /  10   5  20  10
Peachtree City  88  66  88  67 /  10   5  20  20
Vidalia         91  71  90  70 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion